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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Jul 23 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
23 Jul 2016	093	008
24 Jul 2016	090	006
25 Jul 2016	087	016

Bulletin

NOAA 2567 started another active flaring episode shortly after midnight producing 3 M-class flares. The intensities and peak timings of the events were resp. M5.0 (02:11UT), M7.6 (05:16UT), and M5.5 (05:31UT). In particular the last event was accompanied by an impressive ejection of material. San Vito reported a type II radio burst with related shock speed of the disturbance of 729 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is somewhat enhanced (0.77 pfu at 07:25UT), but has remained so far well below the event threshold (10 pfu). The currently available coronagraphic images show that the bulk of the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is directed away from the Earth. However, a glancing blow from the CME of the double-peaked M-class event cannot be excluded. No other earth-directed CMEs were observed.

An accurate assessment of the magnetic configuration of the NOAA 2565 / 2567 sunspot cluster is difficult due to its close proximity near the west limb. Nonetheless, further M-class flaring is possible, with a small chance on an X-class flare. A warning for a potential proton event has been put into effect.

The interplanetary magnetic field was directed towards the Sun (negative), except during the 17:00-02:00UT interval when it was steadily positive (away from the Sun). This interval corresponded to somewhat elevated solar wind speeds between about 440 and 500 km/s and Bz near 0 nT. At the end of the reporting period, solar wind parameters were back at nominal values with wind speed near 390 km/s, and Bz varying between -8 and +7 nT. A small positive coronal hole (CH; latitude +20 degrees) is near the central meridian. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected. An active episode is not excluded, in particular on 25 July when a glancing blow from the 23 July CME is possible.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 030, na základě 22 stanic.

Solární indexy za 22 Jul 2016

Wolfovo číslo Catania	057
10cm sluneční tok	090
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	044 - Na základě 30 stanic

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