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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Oct 15 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Oct 2016	094	015
16 Oct 2016	094	017
17 Oct 2016	094	012

Bulletin

Only a single C flare was observed from the new unnumbered region rotating on the disk in the South East. This C1 flare peaked at 14:49UT. The other regions on disk were mostly inactive and background X-ray flux declined to the B2 level over the period. Apart from an isolated C flare, which remains possible especially from the new region, solar activity is expected to be quiet. Solar proton flux levels were at background values and expected to remain so. Associated to the C1 flare, an Eastbound CME was observed in coronagraph images. It is not expected to influence Earth. No other Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph images.

Solar wind conditions showed a further trend towards nominal conditions, but remain enhanced with solar wind speed actually increasing again to around 500 km/s. The magnetic field magnitude declined from around 16nT at the start of the period to around 8nT presently. The North South component was variable but mostly positive, while the magnetic field phi angle switched into the negative sector around 15:45UT and mostly remained there. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced and increase further in the next 24-48 hours under the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to first remain quiet to unsettled and later increase to possibly active to minor storm conditions under the influence of the expected recurrent high speed stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 036, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Oct 2016

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	025
Odhadovaný Ap	027
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	045 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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