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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Dec 08 1259 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Dec 2016	077	021
09 Dec 2016	077	021
10 Dec 2016	078	018

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. Flaring has been at the B-class level. Active Region (AR) 2615 (Mcintosh class:Cso; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, producing all the B-class flares. However, The region is now approaching the West solar limb and will soon pass off the solar disk. AR 2615 has shown some evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations, and is expected to continue producing flaring activity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected, but a large filament eruption occurred close to the East solar limb, but is not expected to interact with the Earth system. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a reasonable chance of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 330 and 600 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 5 nT and 20 nT. The Bz component has fluctuated between -10 and +20 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-4 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours, with the slightly enhanced values occurring due to the negative Bz and high speed solar wind generated from a large negative polarity Southern polar trans-equatorial coronal hole (CH). This region will be creating enhanced solar wind conditions over the coming days due to influences from the associated Co-Rotating-Interaction Region (CIR) and the subsequent CH High Speed Stream (HSS). As a consequence Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next few days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 014, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Dec 2016

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	011
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	019 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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