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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Dec 20 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Dec 2016	073	005
21 Dec 2016	073	011
22 Dec 2016	074	006

Bulletin

Solar activity was very quiet in the past 24 hours. No flares were observed. The only numbered NOAA active region (AR) 2619 observed on visible side of the solar disk has simple magnetic configuration. Another small sunspot group, observed this morning (20-Dec-2016) by UCCLE-USET, Locarno and Kanzelhohe Observatories, by its high latitude (-23 degrees) and reverse polarity belongs to the next solar cycle 25. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. The large equatorial coronal hole with the low latitude extend that crossed central meridian yesterday afternoon (18-Dec-2016) is expected to disturb significantly the geospace environment from tomorrow evening (21-Dec-2016). Solar proton flux intensity is expected to lie within the background levels. Solar activity is expected to be low with some probability for B-class flares. Variations of the solar wind parameters were very low. Total Interplanetary Magnetic field (IMF) strength varied between 3 and 7 nT, while Bz varied between -3.5 and 3.5 nT. The solar wind speed decreased from 370 km/s till 340 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were ranged from quiet to moderate (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled. We expect active conditions tomorrow evening (21-Dec-2016) due to expected arrival of the fast solar wind coming from the mentioned above large equatorial coronal hole.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 025, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Dec 2016

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	073
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	021 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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