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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2017 Mar 28 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
28 Mar 2017	085	030
29 Mar 2017	087	006
30 Mar 2017	083	009

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has increased. There have been twenty six flares in total originated at two NOAA active regions NOAA AR 2644 (McIntosh:Dai; Mag.Type:Betta-Gamma) and NOAA AR 2645 (McIntosh:Gso; Mag.Type:Betta). Among them five C-class flares have been observed over the past 24 hours originated by both mentioned above ARs. The biggest flare C5.1 (NOAA AR 2644) peaked yesterday (27-Mar-2017) at 18.20 UT; the biggest flare C1.1 produced by NOAA AR 2644 peaked today (28-Mar-2017) at 00:27 UT. Two narrow CME have been detected by Cactus over the past 24 hours, they will not affect Earth environment. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar X-Ray background level is expected to grow more over the next 24 hours with a significant probability of C-class flares. M-class flares are also not excluded. Over the past 24 hours, solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR increased from about 550 km/s to 770 km/s (08:00 UT, 28-Mar-2017). The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has a tendency to decrease (from about 5 nT to 4.5 nT, at 12:30 UT). Bz variations also strongly decreased (varying mostly between -3 nT and +3nT). The geomagnetic field reached major storm levels (Kp=6) during 18:00-21:00 UT time interval yesterday (27-Mar-2017), later 9 hours minor storming period has been observed (Kp=5) till 06:00 UT today (28-Mar-2017). Actual values of Kp are 3 (06:00 -09:00 UT) and 4 (09:00-12:00 UT). Values of local K Dourbes index are also decreasing from 6 to 3. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at high levels due to the coronal hole high speed stream effects for the next two days. However due to the low variations of the interplanetary magnetic field the geomagnetic environment will stay most probably at the active conditions (Kp=4) teh next two days. Minor storming isolated episodes (Kp=5) are possible.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 056, na základě 26 stanic.

Solární indexy za 27 Mar 2017

Wolfovo číslo Catania	052
10cm sluneční tok	083
AK Chambon La Forêt	056
AK Wingst	048
Odhadovaný Ap	051
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	048 - Na základě 32 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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