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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2017 Mar 30 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Mar 2017	082	029
31 Mar 2017	081	016
01 Apr 2017	081	012

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. There have been six B-flares flares originated at NOAA AR 2644 (McIntosh: Eso; Mag.Type: Beta), AR 2645 (McIntosh: Dsi; Mag.Type: Beta) and AR 2646 (McIntosh: Axx; Mag.Type: Alpha). The biggest flare B6.5 peaked yesterday (29-Mar-2017) at 23:32 UT originated at NOAA AR 2644. No Earth-directed CMEs have been detected over the past 24 hours. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar X-Ray background level is expected to remain low. NOAA AR 2646 is about to rotate over the east limb. NOAA AR 2645 and AR 2644 are expected to produce more B-class flares over the next 24 hours. C-class flares are also not excluded. Solar wind parameters indicate the influence of high speed stream (HSS) from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole that arrived at the Earth 27-Mar-2017. Total Interplanetary magnetic field remained stable varying from 3 to 6 nT. The Bz component had two prolongated periods of negative values varying from -6 nT to 5 nT over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed remained stable at high levels varying around 620 km/s. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at high levels under CH HSS regime. WSA-Enlil model simulations predict even more elevated solar wind speed for the next two days due to the global reconnection processes in near Earth space. The geomagnetic field was from unsettled to active levels during the past 24 hours (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) till 03:00 UT this morning (30-Mar-2017), when NOAA Kp index reached minor storm levels (Kp=5), at 06:00 UT Kp index returned to nominal value (Kp=3). The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at active levels mostly for the next two days with isolated episodes of minor storming (Kp=5) in response to the agitated solar wind conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 048, na základě 26 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Mar 2017

Wolfovo číslo Catania	071
10cm sluneční tok	083
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	022
Odhadovaný Ap	023
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	048 - Na základě 31 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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