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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2017 Jul 02 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Jul 2017	070	018
03 Jul 2017	069	026
04 Jul 2017	069	021

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels during the period. NOAA 2664 was quiet. A filament eruption took place around 00:30UT just north of this active region. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.

Quiet flaring conditions are expected.

Solar wind near Earth was highly variable during the period, with a small shock observed at 16:27UT. Wind speed increased abruptly from about 365 km/s to 410 km/s, and total magnetic field strength Bt from 10.5 to 17 nT. The last 24 hours, solar wind speed ranged between 315 and 535 km/s, the maximum occurring around 04:55UT (DSCOVR). Bz ranged between -10 and +15 nT, being mostly positive except for a negative stretch between 04-07UT. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed away from the Sun. The source of the solar wind variability is most likely a transient structure, with the impact from the 28 June CME still expected for later today or tomorrow 3 July. The trailing part of a negative equatorial coronal hole (CH) is transiting the central meridian.

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with active episodes at Dourbes during the 15-18UT and 06-09UT intervals. Kp was at minor storming during the 06-09UT interval, and at active levels from 09-12UT. A glancing blow from the 28 June CME is possible late on 2 or on 3 July, likely followed by the particle stream from the negative CH. This may result in further active geomagnetic conditions, with a chance on a minor storming episode.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 012, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Jul 2017

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	015
Odhadovaný Ap	015
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	014 - Na základě 25 stanic

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