Prohlížíte si archiv sobota 15. července 2017

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2017 Jul 15 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Jul 2017	095	003
16 Jul 2017	097	010
17 Jul 2017	098	014

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2665 produced four B and three C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The most intensive flare was C1.7-class flare peaking at 00:28 UT on 15-July. NOAA AR 2667 produced two radio bursts of type III. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. The integral proton flux for protons with energy above 10 meV (>10 MeV) at the geosynchronous orbit started to rise yesterday at 04:10 UT (14-July), it exceeded the solar radiation storm threshold of 10 pfu around 07:40 UT (14-July) and abruptly reached the peak of 22 pfu around 23:30 UT (14-July). Now (12:30 UT) the > 10 MeV integral proton flux decreased again till 13 pfu. More C-class flares are expected. The > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to go below the threshold level of 10 pfu (from 20:00 UT today). The arrival of 14-July HALO CME may rise again the values of the > 10 MeV proton flux up to 10 pfu (from midnight 16-July). Solar wind parameters were at low level. Small negative polarity southern coronal hole appeared not to be geoeffective. Total magnetic field remained below 4 nT, while Bz component was fluctuating between +/-2 nT over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 370 km/s till 320 km/s. Small and abrupt change in solar wind parameters were observed yesterday at 16:20 UT. Those signatures may indicate a presence of a very small shock wave (as the possible reason of > 10 MeV integral proton flux additional acceleration). Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet. Planetary index Kp remained stable around Kp = 1, while the local K index (Dourbes) was fluctuating between 1 and 3. The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at the quiet level today, while from tomorrow (16 July late) minor storm can be expected (till Kp = 5) due to the 14-July-2017 Halo CME.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 034, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Jul 2017

Wolfovo číslo Catania	052
10cm sluneční tok	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	054 - Na základě 37 stanic

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