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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2017 Sep 06 1254 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Sluneční protony

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm tok	Ap
06 Sep 2017	150	073
07 Sep 2017	150	093
08 Sep 2017	150	017

Bulletin

After yesterdays multiple M flares from Catania group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) this region first seemed to become less activite but this was just the prelude to the X2.2 flare that it generated this morning peaking at 9:10UT. While writing this report another X9.3 flare from this region appeared to be ongoing (peak time 12:02UT) with associated radio bursts of large magnitude recorded in multiple wavelengths. Given the persistent complexity of the region and the magnitude of the ongoing flaring observed, we expect further flaring at M level from this region with a very significant chance for further X flares. Several radio bursts were observed in relation to the X2.2 flare. Currently available coronagraph data show some ejecta towards the South West following the X2.2 flare, but the angular extent appears to be limited. No other Earth directed CMEs are visible in coronagraph data. The >10 MeV proton flux values reached a peak of near 200pfu around 19:30UT before declining again to currently around 25pfu. No increase was recorded following the X2.2 flare. But renewed increases should be anticipated in relation with the ongoing activity.

Solar wind was recovering over the past 24 hours towards nominal conditions with no sign yet of the arrival of the September 4 CME. Solar wind speed decreased to under 475 km/s and total magnetic field was nominally below 5nT. This afternoon we should see increased solar wind conditions with the arrival of the September 4 CME which may increase solar wind speed to over 800 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 1-3, NOAA Kp 2-3). Associated with the arrival of the September 4 CME, geomagnetic storms are expected to set in over the next 24 hours and persist into the next 48 hours. Storm levels may reach major or possibly severe levels.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 113, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 05 Sep 2017

Wolfovo číslo Catania	148
10cm sluneční tok	121
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	015
Odhadovaný Ap	015
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	133 - Na základě 20 stanic

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