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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2017 Sep 10 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
10 Sep 2017	100	006
11 Sep 2017	095	007
12 Sep 2017	092	007

Bulletin

Catania group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) continued to dominate solar activity. The largest flare was an M1.1 flare peaking at 13:53UT September 9. This region has currently reached the Western limb. Other regions on disk were stable or in decay while a new region has appeared from over the Eastern limb. As long as Catania group 46 has not fully disappeared over the Western limb, further M flares must be accounted for, with also a chance for an X flare remaining.

Associated to the M1.1 flare a CME was seen in coronagraph images. It is directed Westward and appears to be limited in angular extent and hence will not be influencing Earth.

The >10MeV proton flux has dropped below 1pfu during the period and is further approaching background values. Associated with the activity in Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA region 2673), chances for renewed increases in proton fluxes remain, but are decreasing.

A positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere is starting to transit the central meridian and could influence solar wind conditions from September 13 onwards.

Solar wind conditions have been stable with solar wind speed around 550km/s, total magnetic field nominal at 4-5nT and Bz mostly positive. The slightly elevated solar wind speed is expected to persist over the next 24 hours and later decline towards nominal values. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes 0-2, NOAA Kp 0-1). Over the next days, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 047, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 09 Sep 2017

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	069 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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