Prohlížíte si archiv sobota 23. září 2017

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2017 Sep 23 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
23 Sep 2017	076	010
24 Sep 2017	079	022
25 Sep 2017	081	007

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours the solar activity was very low, only a small B-class flare was recorded. Catania sunspot groups 56 (NOAA active regions 2681) remained stable showing no flaring activity. Catania sunspot group 55 (NOAA active region 2680) is currently turning over the west solar limb. The top of the loops from the returning region Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA active region 2673), from which a B3.0-class flare (Sept 23 at 06:03 UT) is attributed, is now visible at the east solar limb. We expect the solar activity to increase due to this returning region with C-class flares. As this region was very active with several X-class flares during the previous solar rotation, we cannot exclude the possibility of M to X-class flares to occur. Once the foot-points of the loops will be visible, a better estimation of its magnetic complexity will be made and we will be able to better estimate the probability of flaring activity.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained at background level over the past 24 hours.

The Earth remained inside a slow solar wind flow with de speed lower than 400 Km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 6 nT and the Bz component fluctuated between -4 and 4 nT being mainly negative. The associated fast solar wind to the small equatorial coronal hole that has crossed the central meridian on Sept 20 is expected to arrive at Earth today around midnight UT time.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled with Kp (NOAA) and local K (Dourbes) indexes ranging between 1-2 and 0-3 respectively. While the solar wind remained in its nominal condition, the local K (Dourbs) sowed an unexpected short duration maximum (K=4) at 22:00 UT due to the Bz components being mostly negative. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled until Sept 23 when the fast solar will reach Earth.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 012, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 22 Sep 2017

Wolfovo číslo Catania	022
10cm sluneční tok	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	018 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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