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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2017 Dec 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
17 Dec 2017	071	036
18 Dec 2017	071	029
19 Dec 2017	071	015

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels. DSCOVR observed a disturbance in the solar wind around 21h UT on December 16. Since then, solar wind speed has increased to current values around 600 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was mainly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude has increased from about 4 nT before 21h UT to values up to about 16 nT. Bz was variable and was consistently below -5 nT from about 3:30 until 6:00 UT. The observed enhancement in solar wind conditions is probably due to the arrival of an expected high speed stream of a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 5) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to moderate storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4 to 6) are possible on December 17 and 18. Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on December 19, with a chance for minor geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 000, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 16 Dec 2017

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	000 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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