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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2018 Feb 13 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Feb 2018	079	003
14 Feb 2018	079	004
15 Feb 2018	078	022

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2699 (Mcintosh class:Dai; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, showing considerable flux emergence and cancellation. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. A halo CME was observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 01:25 UT yesterday (2018-Feb-12). The CME has a projected speed of approximately 509 km/s and is anticipated to reach the Earth on 15-Feb-2018 at approximately 12:00 UT. Over the next 24 hours flaring activity is expected to be at the C-class level with a medium probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has decreased from around 325 to 300 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 5 nT. The Bz component was largely positive, fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index 0-2 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A large positive polarity coronal hole just passed the central meridian and may enhance solar wind speeds at Earth in a couple of days. The above mentioned halo CME should reach the Earth around 15-Feb-2018 at approximately 12:00 UT and may also enhance solar wind conditions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 026, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Feb 2018

Wolfovo číslo Catania	021
10cm sluneční tok	079
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	029 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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