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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2018 Mar 07 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
07 Mar 2018	068	010
08 Mar 2018	068	017
09 Mar 2018	068	024

Bulletin

Solar X ray flux remained below B level and with no spotted regions on the visible disk chances for any flare occurrences remain very low.

SDO/AIA 304 images show the eruption after 16:00 UT of a filament stretching from around S18E35 to the disk centre. SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images do not display any identifiable CME signature, but an associated narrow (40 degree width) CME is visible in Stereo A COR2 images from around midnight (propagating to the west as seen from Stereo A location). The location of the erupting filament together with the direction as seen by Stereo indicate that Earth may well be on the propagation path of the ejecta. Given the slow speed (400 km/s as measured from the Stereo A COR2 images) and the faint nature of the event, possible impacts on Earth are expected to be fairly insignificant, and should not be expected before noon March 10.

Proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind showed some enhancement with speed increasing to just over 430 km/s. Before the increase in speed, total magnetic field reached close to 7nT, afterwards recovering to around a nominal 4nT. Bz was variable and the magnetic field phi angle made an excursion away from the positive sector to which it afterwards restored. All of this seems indicative that this was a minor and short lived influence of the negative polarity coronal hole just south of the equator. Late today or early tomorrow we may expect some renewed minor increase of solar wind conditions due to the extension of the northern polar coronal hole. Later, late on March 9, there is a small possibility of minor perturbations associated to the possible passage of the ejecta of March 6. The possible passage of the ejecta of today March 7, should not be expected before noon March 10 in the wake of the coronal hole high speed stream. Also those impacts are expected to be fairly minor, if identifiable at all.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are initially expected to be quiet to unsettled. From noon March 9 onwards an increase to active conditions can not be excluded should any of the mentioned ejecta arrive at Earth and carry a distinctive southward directed magnetic field.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 000, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 06 Mar 2018

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	068
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	000 - Na základě 23 stanic

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