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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2018 Jun 18 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
18 Jun 2018	070	031
19 Jun 2018	069	035
20 Jun 2018	068	012

Bulletin

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours with X-ray flux remaining below C level. Catania sunspot group 86 (NOAA active region 2713) remained on the solar disc and did not decay as fast as expect, however its flaring activity is expected to remain low (below C-level). Therefore, quiet flaring conditions are expected for the next 24-hour period.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than 10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind measurements indicated the onset of a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) on Jun 17 around 22:00 UT announcing the soon arrival of the solar wind High Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere that has passed the central meridian on Jun 15. The wind speed is showing a gradual increase from the nominal values (around 300km/s) to the current values ranging from 500 to 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength has shown a fast enhancement on Jun 17 around 22:30 UT due to the arrival of a CIR with the total field reaching 20.2 nT at 00:56 UT on Jun 18 and Bz component reaching -13.6 nT at 23:36 UT. The enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist within the next 24-hour period and until while under the influence of the HSS associated with the coronal hole.

The geomagnetic conditions have been active over the past 24 hours due to the arrival of the fast solar wind. A minor storm was recorded (Kp-index = 5) at 03:00 UT on Jun 18. The geomagnetic conditions were also observed as active by the local station at Dourbes (K-index = 4) from 04:00 to 05:00 UT and from 09:00 to 10:00 UT on Jun 18. Due to the ongoing enhancement of the solar wind, active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next forecasting period, isolated minor geomagnetic storms cannot be excluded, especially if Bz component remains negative for long period of time.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 028, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 17 Jun 2018

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	014 - Na základě 13 stanic

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