Prohlížíte si archiv pátek 12. října 2018

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2018 Oct 12 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 Oct 2018	071	007
13 Oct 2018	071	007
14 Oct 2018	071	029

Bulletin

The new Active Region near the East limb has produced a B1.7 flare in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 3%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 480 to 400 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. A high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth near the start of October 14, enhancing the solar wind conditions.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 12 and 13. Active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on October 14 due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, with a chance for minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) intervals.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 017, na základě 20 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 Oct 2018

Wolfovo číslo Catania	012
10cm sluneční tok	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	007 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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