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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2019 May 14 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
14 May 2019	075	041
15 May 2019	075	032
16 May 2019	075	038

Bulletin

Alpha region NOAA 2741 produced a B3.5 flare peaking at 15:52 UT on May 13, associated with a coronal dimming detected by Solar Demon. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from region 2741, is estimated at 30%.

LASCO C2 and C3 imagery show a CME first observed in LASCO C2 at 17:14 UT on May 13, which is probably associated to the B3.5 flare. Based on COR2 A imagery, the CME speed is around 650 km/s. The position of the source region suggests that the corresponding ICME is likely to reach Earth, in the second half of May 16. It will possibly interact with the May 12 CME.

A prominence eruption in the southeast was observed in AIA images around 14h UT on May 13, but no corresponding CME was seen in LASCO and COR2 A imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed as measured by DSCOVR has been rising since about 20h UT on May 13, and is currently near 540 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has been elevated since then with a maximum around 15 nT and current values around 9 nT. Solar wind temperature has dropped significantly since about 7h UT on May 14. Most probably these features are due to the arrival of the May 11 CME. Bz was below -10 nT between about 3h and 6h UT on May 14. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on May 14 and 15, and again on May 16 with the expected arrival of the CMEs from May 12 and 13.

Between 6h and 9h UT on May 14, K Dourbes reached minor storm level (K Dourbes = 5). NOAA Kp reached moderate (Kp = 6) and major (Kp = 7) storm level between 3h and 6h and between 6h and 9h UT, respectively. This corresponds to a period with high solar wind speed due to the arrival of the May 11 CME, combined with Bz below -10 nT. Solar wind speed remains elevated but Bz is currently close to zero. Active to moderate storm levels (K Dourbes = 4-6) are possible on May 14 and 15, and again on May 16 due to the expected arrival of the May 12 and 13 CMEs.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 024, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 May 2019

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	027 - Na základě 32 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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