Prohlížíte si archiv sobota 21. září 2019

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2019 Sep 21 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
21 Sep 2019	067	005
22 Sep 2019	067	007
23 Sep 2019	067	013

Bulletin

Solar X ray flux remained below B level throughout the period. The Solar disk is spotless and X-ray flux is expected to remain at or below background levels.

The filament eruption from the Southern hemisphere that was mentioned in yesterdays bulletin has been investigated further. While the STEREO/COR2 coronagraph data indicate a corresponding narrow CME that may be Earth directed its corresponding projected speed is below 300 km/s. SoHO/LASCO data do not show any clear signs of any (partial) halo CME but only some weak signatures of Eastward propagating material. It is hence assessed that the ejecta are possibly off the Sun-Earth line towards the East. Even if the ejecta would be towards the Earth, with such a slow speed it is unlikely to have any significant impact. Hence no specific arrival forecast is made. There were otherwise no Earth-directed CMEs observed in coronagraph data.

Proton levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind conditions were near nominal. Around 5:00UT Solar wind speed increased fairly suddenly from around 300 km/s to around 360 km/s along with total magnetic field going up from around 3nT to around 7nT. At that time the magnetic field phi angle started fluctuating between the positive and negative sector and Bz became pronounced negative. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain near nominal over the next 48 hours then followed towards the end of day 3 with the onset of a high speed stream related to the negative polarity equatorial coronal hole that passed the central meridian yesterday.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3 and local K Dourbes 0-3). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue the next 48 hours with later, towards the end of day 3, unsettled to active conditions expected under the high speed stream influence.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 000, na základě 23 stanic.

Solární indexy za 20 Sep 2019

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	067
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	000 - Na základě 30 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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