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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Oct 28 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
28 Oct 2020	082	021
29 Oct 2020	084	019
30 Oct 2020	085	017

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2778 has evolved from beta into beta-gamma magnetic field configuration, also increasing its area and sunspot number. It is the only visible active region on disk. It produced two C-class flares in the past 24 hours, the largest was a C1.5 peaking at 13:41 UT on 27 October. More C-class can be expected, M-class flares are possible.

A filament erupted close to central meridian (around N30 in latitude) at 22:00 UT on 26 October. The related CME could possibly arrive to the Earth on 1 November (estimated time 01:00 UT), since the speed is low (around 300 km/s) a strong geomagnetic impact is not expected.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay at background levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electrons are above the 10^3 pfu threshold, as the Earth is still under the influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) from a coronal hole (CH). The electrons are expected to stay at elevated levels in the next 24 h.

The speed of the solar wind was fairly constant around 500 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Earth is still inside the HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole. Bz was never below -4 nT and B reached 4 nT. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected for the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled both locally and at planetary levels (Kp = 3, KDourbes = 3). Unsettled to active conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours, as the Earth is still under the influence of the HSS.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 025, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 27 Oct 2020

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	042 - Na základě 16 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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