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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Nov 22 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
22 Nov 2020	088	032
23 Nov 2020	092	026
24 Nov 2020	090	012

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. One C1.3 flare peaking at 09:27 UTC on Nov 22nd was produced from an active region behind the east limb. NOAA active region 2783 (Hsx/alpha) remained quiet producing only B-class flares. The new active region in the north-east quadrant reported first on Nov 21st is now classified as NOAA active region 2784 (Cro/beta). This region is slowly evolving and has remained quiet. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a high chance for C-class flares due to the flaring activity from the active region behind the east limb. This region is expected to approach the limb within the next 24 -36 hours. Given its activity an isolated M class flare remains possible. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels. Enhancements of the > 2MeV electron flux are foreseen within the next 24 hours related to the high speed stream originating from coronal hole CH 96 which arrived to Earth in the evening of Nov 21st. The 24 hour electron fluence is expected to rise to active levels on Nov 23rd and likely persist above this level for some time.

Over the past 24 hours several shocks were detected in the solar wind parameters with the arrival of a high speed stream originating from coronal hole CH 96. The solar wind speed has increased from 330 to 650 km/s and is currently at 590 km/s (ACE and DSCOVR). The total magnetic field reached a maximal strength of 12 nT with a minimum Bz reaching -10 nT at 04:30 UTC on Nov 22nd. The phi angle was mainly in the positive sector reflecting the polarity of CH 96. The global geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (locally quiet to active in Dourbes). Predominantly active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with increased chances for isolated minor geomagnetic storms.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 028, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 21 Nov 2020

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	085
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	015
Odhadovaný Ap	015
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	022 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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