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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Nov 25 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
25 Nov 2020	101	009
26 Nov 2020	102	009
27 Nov 2020	102	004

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2786 (Beta) now has visible trailer spots and produced a C3.4 flare, peaking at 04:02 UT Nov 24. NOAA AR 2783 (Beta) remained quiet, while NOAA AR 2785 (Alpha) showed some decay and produced only B-class flares. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a high chance for C-class flares, particularly from NOAA AR 2786. An isolated M-class flare also remains possible.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to continue to oscillate around this threshold value during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to gradually decrease to nominal levels over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed continued to show a declining trend, decreasing from around 460 to 350 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength remained below 5 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi angle continued to be predominantly in the positive sector. Over the next 48 hours the solar wind may show some weak enhancements associated with the extension to the northern polar coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Nov 23.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values of 1-3 and 0-3, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours with the possibility of an isolated active interval on Nov 26 in response to the predicted possible further enhancements in the solar wind.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 043, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 24 Nov 2020

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	037 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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