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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Nov 28 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
28 Nov 2020	107	008
29 Nov 2020	108	005
30 Nov 2020	108	005

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2786 (Beta-Gamma) produced multiple B and low-level C-class flares. NOAA AR 2785 (Beta) developed trailer spots and showed signs of flux emergence. NOAA AR 2783 exhibited some decay and is now an Alpha region. The newly numbered NOAA AR 2787 (N30E60, Catania sunspot group 58) which has recently rotated onto the solar disk has magnetic type Alpha and was quiet. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a high chance for C-class flares, particularly from NOAA AR 2786. An isolated M-class flare also remains possible.

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold between 13:00 and 20:40 UT Nov 27. During the next 24 hours, the electron flux is expected to exceed the 1000 pfu level again. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed ranged between 390 and 490 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength had a maximum value of 6 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed away from the Sun (phi angle in the positive sector). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to return to nominal conditions as the influence of the extension to the northern polar Coronal Hole (CH) dwindles.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values of 1-3 and 0-3, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours and then return to quiet levels as the influence of the CH passes.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 076, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 27 Nov 2020

Wolfovo číslo Catania	083
10cm sluneční tok	106
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	063 - Na základě 22 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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