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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Dec 01 1301 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
01 Dec 2020	113	014
02 Dec 2020	113	021
03 Dec 2020	113	007

Bulletin

The new region (NOAA 2790) rotating into view on the East and responsible for the M4 flare November 29, remained fairly calm over the period, with just a C3 flare peaking at 4:27UT. The regions NOAA 2787, 2788, 2789 all lost their spots over the period. This leaves us with 3 regions on disk: the insignificant alpha region 2785, the new region rotating into view which has not been fully analysed but appears more stable than expected yesterday and the largest region, NOAA 2786, which simplified to beta configuration and was inactive. Hence, overall flaring probability is less than yesterday and C flares are likely, with an M flare still possible but not very probable, and only a very slight chance for an X flare.

Before loosing its spots, NOAA 2787 was the source of a C1 flare peaking at 7:21 with a dimming and an associated CME visible in SoHO/LASCO from 7:12UT. The CME is still being analysed but initial analysis indicates there might be an Earthward component. No other Earth directed CMEs have been recorded in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained enhanced and reached to 7pfu. It is not expected to rise much further although that can not be excluded. The greater than 2MeV electron flux did not exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold during its diurnal maximum, and is not expected to do so today. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours. Overall a renewed increasing trend may follow the lasting current Solar wind enhancement.

Solar wind remained enhanced just above 500 km/s (with a peak up to 575 km/s), while the magnetic field was a t nominal levels below 5nT. Bz was variable while the phi angle was in the negative sector (towards the Sun). As no clearly identifiable source of this enhanced Solar wind could be indicated a slow return towards nominal conditions should be anticipated. Should any shock from the December 29 CME arrive to Earth this could occur late today or early tomorrow.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes 0-2 and NOAA Kp 0-1). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with possibly active periods given the current increased solar wind speed, and the possible CME shock arrival.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 044, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 30 Nov 2020

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	085 - Na základě 14 stanic

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