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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Dec 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Dec 2020	083	003
16 Dec 2020	083	004
17 Dec 2020	083	008

Bulletin

Beta regions NOAA 2792 and 2793 have produced several B flares in the past 24 hours. NOAA 2792 has released a C4.0 flare peaking at 14:37 UT on December 14. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%.

LASCO C2 observed a CME from the southeast limb at 15:09 UT on December 14, probably related to the C4.0 flare in AR 2792 at 14:37 UT. A Type II burst was observed by Sagamore Hill, with an estimated CME speed of 606 km/s. Judging from its orientation and extent, a glancing blow from this CME seems unlikely.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 305 and 370 km/s. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) changed from negative (towards the Sun) to predominantly positive (away from the Sun) around 19h UT on December 14 and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on December 15 and 16. Slight enhancements may be possible in the second half of December 17, due to the expected influence of a recurrent, small, negative polarity coronal hole that passed the central meridian on December 14.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 15, 16 and 17, with a chance for active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) in the second half of December 17.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 021, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Dec 2020

Wolfovo číslo Catania	011
10cm sluneční tok	083
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	002
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	013 - Na základě 17 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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