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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Dec 21 1259 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
21 Dec 2020	084	005
22 Dec 2020	085	017
23 Dec 2020	086	022

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at very low levels. No significant flares have been recorded. AR 2796 (Hsx/alpha), possibly recurrent AR 2786, has rotated onto the visible disk. Solar activity is expected to remain mainly at low levels, with a chance of C class flares from the newly emerged region.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase from December 22 as a response to the High Speed Stream associated with the extension of the northern Coronal Hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase from December 22 as a response to the High Speed Stream associated with the extension of the northern Coronal Hole.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between 350 and 405 km/s in the past 24 hours. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) switched from the positive (away from the Sun) to the negative sector (towards from the Sun). Its magnitude varied between about 1 and 9 nT while Bz varied between -7 and 5 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced from December 22 as a response to the High Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the extension of the northern Coronal Hole.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions, with values registered for the past 24 hours for K Dourbes varying 0-2 and 0-3 for NOAA Kp. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are possible from December 22 due to the expected HSS from the extension of the positive northern polar coronal hole, with a slight chance for minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5) around December 23.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 010, na základě 04 stanic.

Solární indexy za 20 Dec 2020

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	084
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	000 - Na základě 16 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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