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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Dec 23 1237 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
23 Dec 2020	086	019
24 Dec 2020	086	015
25 Dec 2020	087	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at very low levels. No significant flares have been recorded. A new region has emerged in the SE quadrant. Solar activity is expected to remain mainly at low levels, with a low chance of C class flares.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase as a response of the combined effects of the High Speed Streams (HSS) associated with extensions of the northern Coronal Hole crossing Central Meridian (CM) Dec 17 and 20. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase, as a response of the combined effects of the High Speed Streams (HSS) associated with extensions of the northern Coronal Hole crossing Central Meridian (CM) Dec 17 and 20.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR and ACE was further enhanced, varying between 520 and 645 km/s in the past 24 hours. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly to the positive sector (away from the Sun), with some variations to the negative sector. Its magnitude varied between about 2 and 7 nT while Bz varied between -7 and 4 nT. Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become further enhanced as more combined effects with the HSS associated with the extensions of the northern Coronal Hole crossing CM at Dec 20 is to expected.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions, with an active event early Dec 23 (Kp = 4) were registered in the past 24 hours, with values for K Dourbes varying between 0-3 and 2-4 for NOAA Kp. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are possible due to the expected combined effects of the HSSs originating from the extensions of the positive northern polar coronal hole, with a chance for minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5).

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 020, na základě 03 stanic.

Solární indexy za 22 Dec 2020

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	086
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	014
Odhadovaný Ap	014
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	010 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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