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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jan 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
09 Jan 2021	075	007
10 Jan 2021	076	017
11 Jan 2021	076	010

Bulletin

Solar X-ray flux remained below background (B) level. With no active regions on disc, solar flaring activity is expected to be very low.

Following the filament eruption and associated CME from the South-Western quadrant reported yesterday, another filament (located just West of the coronal hole) erupted around 13UT. The associated coronal signatures as observed in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images as well as STEREO A COR2 data, show that also these ejecta will not have an impact on Earth. There are no other new Earth directed CMEs observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu event threshold and is expected to remain below that threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and expected to be nominal over the next days.

Solar wind values reflected background slow Solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed decreased further from close to 400km/s to around 325 km/s since midnight. The interplanetary magnetic field was generally below 5nT and the magnetic field phi angle was initially variable but is now stable in the negative sector (towards the Sun). Background slow Solar wind conditions are initially expected to continue, but by January 10 a switch into the positive sector (away from the Sun) is expected and some increase in Solar wind conditions related to a positive polarity coronal hole is likely.

Geomagnetic condition were quiet (NOAA Kp 0-1 and local K Dourbes 0-2). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected initially, then increasing to unsettled conditions on January 10 with also an isolated active period not excluded.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 000, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 08 Jan 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	000
10cm sluneční tok	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	001
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	000 - Na základě 17 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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