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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jan 12 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 Jan 2021	074	013
13 Jan 2021	074	009
14 Jan 2021	074	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels on a spotless solar disk. No significant flares were detected in the last 24 hours and none are expected in the next 24 hours. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The fast forward shock observed in the solar wind data at 8:25 UTC on Jan 11th (ACE and DSCOVR) was possibly caused by an ICME, which was followed by the arrival of a CIR and a high speed stream (HSS) originating from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Jan 6th. These caused a substantial increase of the total magnetic field from 2 nT to 20 nT and variations of the north-south component in the range of -18 nT to 16 nT over the past 24 hours. Over this period the solar wind speed increased from about 340 km/s to 490 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field switched orientation from negative to positive polarity sector with the arrival of the HSS.

The geomagnetic activity was predominantly active with several minor storms detected locally at Dourbes from 15 to 17 UTC on Jan 11th and at 02 UTC on Jan 12th. The minor storms were reached due to the large negative Bz related to the arrival of the ICME ad the CIR, together with the prolonged period of negative Bz after. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as the influence of the HSS subsides with a possibility for isolated minor storm period if prolonged periods with large negative Bz are reached again.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 000, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 Jan 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	000
10cm sluneční tok	073
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	015
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	000 - Na základě 16 stanic

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