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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jan 15 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Jan 2021	074	003
16 Jan 2021	074	004
17 Jan 2021	074	010

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels. A few very faint presently unclassified and unnumbered sun spots have emerged on the solar disc without showing signs of activity. No significant flares were detected in the last 24 hours and none are expected in the next 24 hours. No Earth- directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 48 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) returned to undisturbed slow solar wind conditions. Both the total magnetic field and its Bz component remained very weak, varying in the range of 0.5 nT to 5.5 nT and -3.5 nT to 5.4 nT, respectively. The phi angle changes from the positive to the negative sector as the influence of the positive polarity coronal hole faded away. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 360 km/s to 300 km/s.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the past 24 hours and quiet conditions are expected in the next 48 hours. A higher latitude extension of the negative polarity southern polar coronal hole has crossed the central meridian over the night. With respect to that quiet to unsettled conditions might be expected in the late evening of Jan 17th and quiet to active conditions are expected for Jan 18th as the HSS originating from this coronal hole reaches Earth.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 019, na základě 10 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Jan 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	000
10cm sluneční tok	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	004 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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