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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jan 31 1233 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
31 Jan 2021	073	003
01 Feb 2021	073	010
02 Feb 2021	074	012

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. There are no numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the time during the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain above this alert level during most of the next period. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to continue at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed ranged between 300 and 340 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength fluctuated between 0 and 5 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed towards the Sun (phi angle in the negative sector) but switched into the positive sector from 10 UT Jan 31. Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to reflect a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind parameters are then expected to become enhanced from the afternoon of Feb 01 due to the arrival of the high-speed stream associated with the elongated negative polarity coronal hole that began to cross the central meridian on Jan 28.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels with one local unsettled interval (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values between 0-1 and 0-3, respectively.) Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels for the next 24 hours. From late on Feb 01, active conditions are expected with a possible isolated minor storm interval in response to the arrival of the aforementioned high-speed stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 000, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 30 Jan 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	000 - Na základě 14 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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