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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Feb 20 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Feb 2021	073	019
21 Feb 2021	073	022
22 Feb 2021	073	017

Bulletin

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The unipolar sunspot (Catania 73, NOAA-AR 2803) is on the visible solar disc, however, no significant flaring activity was recorded. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours with small chances of C-class flare from the newly emerged sunspot.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections was observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold. The electron flux is expected to increase in the next few days due to the enhancement of the solar wind conditions and may pass the 1000 pfu threshold.

Over the past 24 hours, the Earth was under the influence of the fast solar wind regime. The solar wind speed increased from about 360 km/s to almost 600 km/s. The total magnetic field reached 14 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -10 nT and 11 nT. This unexpected observed high-speed streams is most probably associated with the southern solar coronal hole (negative magnetic polarity) and is expected to continue its influence on the solar wind environment near Earth for several days. The enhancement will also be combined with the expected influence of the high-speed streams coming from the equatorial coronal hole (negative magnetic polarity and facing Earth on February 18) tomorrow.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active. The conditions are expected to remain active with possible periods of storm conditions (Kp, and K-Dourbes equal to 5) in response to the enhancement of the solar wind parameters and possible prolonged periods of southward directed Bz component.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 011, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Feb 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	022
10cm sluneční tok	073
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	018
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	011 - Na základě 19 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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