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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Feb 24 1236 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
24 Feb 2021	078	014
25 Feb 2021	078	008
26 Feb 2021	077	004

Bulletin

The solar activity has been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. Regions Catania 74/NOAA AR 2804 and Catania 75/NOAA 12805 has a low flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained over the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence remained on moderate levels in the past 24 hours. Both the electron flux and fluence are expected to remain elevated, with a decreasing trend, due to possible effects of the CME from Feb. 20 that could have an impact on Earth.

The solar wind speed ranged between 450 km/s and 600 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 3 nT and 9 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -7 nT and 7 nT. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly to the negative sector (towards the Sun), with an exception of early Feb 24. Regarding the CME on Feb 20, data from Stereo A indicate possible arrival on Feb 23 12:00UT. At the same time, data from DSCOVR show an increase in the magnetic field and a decrease in temperature at about Feb 24 04:00UT which could be a mark of the arrival of the ICME to Earth. This will be confirmed later as more data comes in. Solar wind conditions are anticipated to remain at about these levels for the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active event early Feb 24 (K Dourbes and Kp=4) corresponding to the positive polarity of the IMF. They are expected to remain unsettled, depending on any impact of the possible shock from the arrival of the CME on Feb 20.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 034, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 23 Feb 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	038
10cm sluneční tok	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	014
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	032 - Na základě 27 stanic

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