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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Mar 09 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
09 Mar 2021	080	011
10 Mar 2021	080	012
11 Mar 2021	079	007

Bulletin

The X-ray flux remained below C-level. Active region NOAA 2806 is turning behind the limb. A new region, Catania group 78 is rotating to the disk in the NE. X-ray flux is expected to remain below C-level.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked over the 1000 pfu event threshold during its diurnal maximum and is expected do so again today. The 24h electron fluence reached moderate levels and is expected to remain on those levels considering the enhanced solar wind conditions.

A low latitude corona hole of negative polarity in the southern hemisphere is expected to start crossing the central meridian today. Its effects to the solar wind conditions are expected after the noon of the 12th March.

Solar wind showed a slow decline of the enhanced solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed is around 450 km/s and is expected to slowly decline further. The magnetic field strength is below 5 nT and is expected to remain weak. The magnetic field was directed away from the Sun. Solar wind conditions are expected to further decay slowly over the next couple of days. The corona hole crossing the solar meridian today is expected to effect the solar wind conditions in approximately 3 days. By that time a boundary crossing is expected to occur. The magnetic field strength to increase significantly.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes had values 0-3). They are expected to remain quiet to unsettled with a general decaying trend. An increase is expected beginning in the 12 March, as today's coronal hole crossing is expected to affect the geomagnetic conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 022, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 08 Mar 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	080
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	013 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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