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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Mar 12 1236 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 Mar 2021	076	013
13 Mar 2021	075	031
14 Mar 2021	074	031

Bulletin

The Catania group 78/90 (NOAA 2808) developed small spots in its trailing part, but produced no noticeable activity in the past 24 hours. The X-ray flux remained below B-level. The newly-named NOAA 2809 region has a simple magnetic configuration and is not expected to produce any significant X-flare activity. Only background activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked over the 1000 pfu event threshold during its diurnal maximum but it is expected to be weaker today. However, beyond the next 24 hours, the electron flux is expected to increase gradually due to the expected increase in solar wind velocities. The 24h electron fluence remained at moderate levels but it is expected to be reduced in the following 24 hours.

The solar wind continued to be in slow regime and its speed declined to almost 300 km/s. At around 06:00UT the expected boundary crossing occurred (into the negative sector with the magnetic field towards the sun), while the solar speed continued to decline gradually. Leading up to and following the boundary crossing, the interplanetary magnetic field increased to over 9 nT, while the Bz has been negative for a long period and gradually dropped to -8 nT. An increase in the solar speed is expected and is estimated to reach 500 km/s gradually.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp: 0-3, local K Dourbes: 1-3). An increase to active conditions may occur due to the boundary crossing that took place and the enhanced solar wind conditions that are expected over the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 012, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 Mar 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	024
10cm sluneční tok	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	021 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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