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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 May 25 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
25 May 2021	073	024
26 May 2021	073	027
27 May 2021	073	008

Bulletin

The Sun has produced only B flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 40%, while the chance for an M flare is estimated at 5%, mainly from Beta-Gamma region NOAA 2824.

A CME towards the west was first observed at 17:47 UT on May 24 in LASCO C2, after a data gap. Assuming region 2824 is the source region, this CME is probably Earthbound, with an estimated speed of 500 km/s and arrival time around 21h UT on May 28.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached a daily maximum just above the 1000 pfu threshold, and is expected to reach a similar daily maximum in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence has reached moderate levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to return to normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 360 to 315 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between 1 and 4 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase in the second half of May 25, with the arrival of several CMEs on May 25 and May 26.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 1; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) are possible in the second half of May 25, on May 26 and on May 27, with a chance for moderate geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 6), due to the expected arrival of several CMEs.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 037, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 24 May 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	041
10cm sluneční tok	073
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	029 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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