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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 May 30 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
30 May 2021	076	011
31 May 2021	075	007
01 Jun 2021	075	004

Bulletin

While NOAA region 2824 will soon rotate behind the West limb, new flux emergence in the Northeast quadrant has created new beta region 2827. The Sun has produced no C flares during the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, while the chance for an M flare is estimated at 15%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. There is a slight chance for proton events in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 390 km/s and 490 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 465 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 8 nT, with current values around 3 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for extended intervals.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on May 30, with a slight chance for minor storm geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels are expected in the first half of May 31. There is a slight chance that the CME of May 28 provides a glancing blow to the Earth. In that case, active to minor storm levels are possible in the second half of May 31 and on June 1. If no glancing blow reaches the Earth, quiet to unsettled levels are expected in that period.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 027, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 May 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	076
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	013 - Na základě 30 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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