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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jun 11 1252 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm tok	Ap
11 Jun 2021	074	012
12 Jun 2021	074	007
13 Jun 2021	073	007

Bulletin

During last 24 hours solar flaring activity was very low, with only one low B-class flare reported. In the coming hours we can expect B-class flares and possibly, but not very probably, also C-class flares. Rather wide CME (about 150 degrees) first time observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 19:00 UT on June 10 (straight after 1h of data gap) seem to have a source region on the back side of the Sun. As such, CME is not expected to arrive to the Earth. During last 24 hours the proton flux levels remained at background values.

The greater than 2MeV electron flux is still bellow the 1000 pfu threshold, and we expect it will remain so during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is already for several days at normal levels and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours.

The in situ observations show arrival of magnetic structure, possibly CME of presently unclear solar origin, starting at about 0:20 UT this morning. The interplanetary magnetic field increased rather suddenly to a value of about 8 nT, and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned at the same time negative (- 7 nT). The phi angle also showed simultaneous change, but other plasma parameters (density, temperature and the solar wind speed) did not show any change. Such plasma conditions were maintained for several hours. We will report more when more data become available. The solar wind speed is presently about 340 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is 8 nT. During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. The unsettled conditions were induced by long duration interval of the negative Bz component. We expect quiet to unsettled conditions Isolated intervals of the active geomagnetic conditions are also possible in the coming hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 021, na základě 23 stanic.

Solární indexy za 10 Jun 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	030
10cm sluneční tok	073
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	028 - Na základě 35 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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