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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Aug 29 1257 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Aug 2021	091	008
30 Aug 2021	091	016
31 Aug 2021	090	008

Bulletin

During last 24 hours six B-class and three C-class flares were reported. The strongest reported flare was the C8.1 flare (peaked at 10:03 UT this morning) originating from the Catania sunspot group 32 (NOAA AR 2860) which is maintaining the beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect similar level of the flaring activity to continue in the coming hours. From the presently available data it is not clear if the C8.1 flare was associated with the wide CME. More will be reported when data become available. The large filament eruption from the northern hemisphere (at about 15:00 UT on August 28) and close to the central meridian does not seem to be associated with the CME observed in the presently available coronagraph data. The CME associated with that filament eruption would be possibly Earth directed. The M4.7 flare (peaked at 06:11 UT on August 28) was associated with the partial halo CME (first time seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 07:48 UT) that could arrive to Earth on September 2.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and we expect it will remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux crossed the 1000 pfu threshold at about 03:20 UT today and it is above the threshold since then. We expect such level to remain in the coming hours. The 24h electron fluence is at moderate levels and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is presently about 390 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 2 nT. In the morning of August 30 we can expect arrival of the halo CME (first observed in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at about 19:00 UT on April 26) that could induce active geomagnetic conditions. During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to quiet. We can expect such a geomagnetic conditions to persist in the coming hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 047, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Aug 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	090
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	017
Odhadovaný Ap	018
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	070 - Na základě 25 stanic

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