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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Sep 14 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Sep 2021	084	007
15 Sep 2021	083	004
16 Sep 2021	080	001

Bulletin

The solar activity was at low levels with a single C-class flare over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2866 (Catania group 40) produced the C-class flare today 06:53 UT, but its magnetic progress cannot be easily estimated as it is close to the disk's edge. NOAA AR 2868 (Catania group 39) will rotate out of Earth's view in the next 24 hours hence the chances of detectable activity are reduced. An isolated C-class flare is possible in the next 24 hours, but not most likely.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that was observed by LASCO-C2/SOHO and COR2/STEREO in Sep 13 12:00 UT is likely to be geo-effective. Based on COR2 observations, its speed is estimated to be 300 km/s and it is expected to reach Earth around the Sep 18. A smaller CME detected by LASCO-C2/SOHO in Sep 14 around 06:00 UT, is also expected to reach Earth, possibly in the same day (Sep 18).

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h fluence for the greater than 2MeV electron flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) parameters measured by ACE and DSCOVR show that the Earth's environment is still under the influence of the ICME that arrived in Sep 13. The solar wind speed varied between 430 and 520 km/s in the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field varied between 3.7 and 9.2 nT and the Bz magnetic field component between -6.5 and 5.7 nT during the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field remained positive (directed away from the Sun) throughout the last 24 hours. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain at this level for a large part of the next 24 hours and then change to a typical slow solar wind regime.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were both globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 0-3). They are expected to maintain the same variety in values in the next 24 hours, as the solar wind conditions are not expected to change.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 023, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Sep 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	036
10cm sluneční tok	083
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	032 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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