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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Nov 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
26 Nov 2021	084	010
27 Nov 2021	084	018
28 Nov 2021	084	013

Bulletin

Only one active region visible on the Sun (NOAA AR 2898, beta magnetic field configuration). There have been no C-class flares in the past 24 hours. This active region has increased in size and number of spots in the past 24 hours, C-class flares are possible.

There was a filament eruption on the northeast quadrant last midnight, resulting in a northward CME which is not expected to affect the Earth. A very faint partial halo was observed going to the south at the same time, this event is considered to be backsided, not affecting the Earth either. The partial halo CME from November 24 is expected to arrive early on 28 November (around 01:00 UT).

A small negative equatorial coronal hole crossed the central meridian on 23 November, a high speed solar wind stream may be expected at Earth within 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was slightly over the threshold for a few hours, it may increase again over the threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at normal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at normal levels or go into moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR is around 350 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) was oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude is about 5 nT. There were no extended intervals with Bz below -5 nT. A high speed solar wind stream can be expected within 24 hours.

Quiet conditions (K-BEL between 0 and 2, Kp 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active conditions can be possible upon the arrival of the high speed solar wind stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 046, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 25 Nov 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	026 - Na základě 12 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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