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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jan 02 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Jan 2022	094	011
03 Jan 2022	092	013
04 Jan 2022	092	007

Bulletin

Just two C flares have been observed over the period. Both from NOAA region 2918 (Catania group 96). The largest a C2.3 flare peaking at 19:09UT. This region is now about to turn over the West limb. The most significant region on disc remains NOAA region 2916 (Catania group 97) which remained quiet and stable. The simple alpha region 2919 decayed into plage while both bipolar groups (NOAA 2921 and 2923) remained quiet and seem to decay. Flaring at C level remains likely with still a small chance for flaring to reach M class levels.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes are expected to start building up again in the next days with the expected elevated Solar wind speeds.

High speed stream Solar wind conditions persisted through the period. The Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 550km/s to 520km/s while the magnetic field magnitude decreased from 9nT to 7nT, with a variable Bz component. The magnetic field phi angle indicated connection to a positive polarity sector. Solar wind speed is expected to see a gradual decline toward slow Solar wind conditions over the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 1-3) and are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 029, na základě 10 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Jan 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	014
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	046 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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