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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jan 18 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
18 Jan 2022	114	017
19 Jan 2022	112	017
20 Jan 2022	110	017

Bulletin

There are 7 visible active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 2929 has evolved into beta-gamma configuration. Nevertheless, the flaring activity was concentrated on NOAA AR 2930, the strongest was a C2.8 flare peaking at 14:15 UT on 17 January. More C-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours, M-class flares are possible.

The flare described above was related to a narrow northward-directed CME, which is not expected to affect the Earth. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain close to the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to increase in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is still under the influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) with solar wind speeds close 550 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) over the last 24 hours. Around 21:00 UT on 17 January the magnetic field increased up to 8 nT with several hours of negative Bz (peaking at -7 nT), these could be mild signatures of the passage of the CME from 14 January (this occurred during a period containing data gaps and with data source changes between ACE and DISCOVR). The solar wind speed is expected to decrease in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels in Belgium (K_Bel = 4) in the past 24 hours, and minor storm conditions were reached at planetary levels (Kp = 5). Mostly unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours, if the CMEs from 15-16 January arrive (expected 19-20 January) then up to minor storm conditions can be expected.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 063, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 17 Jan 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	107
10cm sluneční tok	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	084 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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