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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jan 22 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
22 Jan 2022	097	015
23 Jan 2022	097	020
24 Jan 2022	097	008

Bulletin

There are 2 visible active regions on the solar disk, but none has produced C-class flares or higher in the past 24 hours. The active regions that produced most of the activity in the last days, have disappeared over the west limb. Solar activity is expected to be low in the next 24 hours.

A CME erupted from NOAA AR 2934 around 10:00 UT on 21 January, it was directed mostly towards the east and is not expected to affect Earth (although a shock arrival cannot be discarded around 24 January).

A coronal hole (positive polarity) crossed the central meridian on 21 January, its associated high speed steam can be expected at the Earth on 24-25 January.

The greater than 10 MeV proton is below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is below the 1000 pfu alert threshold (but close to it) and is expected to remain close to the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed at Earth is about 420 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field around 4 nT. A small disturbance was observed around 13:00 UT on 21 January, with an increase in solar wind speed and magnetic field (but not a shock) most likely related to the CME from 18 January, without further consequences. Slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels locally (K_Bel 2 - 4) and were quiet to unsettled at planetary levels (Kp 2 - 3). The CME from 20 January has a low probability of arriving to the Earth tomorrow, increasing geomagnetic conditions to active or even minor storm levels.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 021, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 21 Jan 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	036
10cm sluneční tok	097
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	023 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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