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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Feb 2022	125	005
09 Feb 2022	122	037
10 Feb 2022	120	034

Bulletin

Only a few C flares occurred over the period. The strongest peaking at C3.8 magnitude at 12:39UT from over the West limb near active region 2938. NOAA region 2939, dominated by its leading spot, has lost many of its other smaller spots. NOAA region 2941 continues to spread out with new flux emerging in the intermediate area. Both regions produced minor C flares. Also NOAA region 2940 saw flux emergence in the intermediate area evolving into a more consolidated trailing spot. This region produced a few flares at B level. The small bipolar region 2942 is about to rotate over the West limb. Another small region appears to be forming in the South East, but it remains to be seen if this is longlived. Occasional flaring at C level is expected with a small chance for an isolated M flare.

A filament eruption this morning in the South East has an associated South East directed CME in coronagraph data but it is significantly off the Sun- Earth line. No new Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold, due to the enhanced Solar wind conditions. It is expected to remain above the threshold in the next 24 hours until the CME arrival tomorrow noon, which is expected to cause a drop in the electron flux levels. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the next period, and then to decrease afterwards.

Solar wind showed the continued return towards slow Solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed decreased from around 480 km/s to under 450 km/s presently. The magnetic field magnitude was around 4nT with a variable Bz. The magnetic field phi angle indicated connection to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). Solar wind conditions are expected to show a further decrease towards slow Solar wind conditions. Tomorrow, February 9, we then expect the arrival of the February 6 CME from noon onward, with Solar wind speed not expected to reach over 500 km/s.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 0-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet until tomorrow noon (February 9) when an increase to active conditions is likely, with minor and potentially moderate storm conditions possible due to the CME arrival.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 074, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Feb 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	094
10cm sluneční tok	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	080 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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