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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 23 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
23 Feb 2022	096	009
24 Feb 2022	096	007
25 Feb 2022	096	007

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 55%, mainly from regions 2954 and 2955.

A filament eruption took place around 11:30 UT on February 22 (25-45N 90W) and an associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was first detected by LASCO C2 at 13:48 UT. No Earthbound CMEs were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux had maximum levels around the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours, and will probably exceed that threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 440 and 535 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values near 480 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 2 and 7 nT, while its orientation was predominantly away from the Sun. There were no extended time intervals with Bz below -5 nT. A gradual decrease to nominal solar wind conditions is expected to set in on February 23.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K-BEL = 4) are possible on February 23, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K-BEL < 4) are expected on February 24 and 25, with a chance for active intervals (K-BEL = 4).

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 037, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 22 Feb 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	014
Odhadovaný Ap	016
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	037 - Na základě 20 stanic

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