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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Apr 09 1239 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
09 Apr 2022	105	018
10 Apr 2022	105	014
11 Apr 2022	102	012

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels with six C-class flares over the past 24 hours. Most of the flaring activity came from NOAA 2981 (beta) and NOAA 2978 (beta), which are currently close to the west limb. The most significant event was an impulsive C4.7-class flare with peak time 11:24 UT on April 9th produced by NOAA 2981. The remaining flaring activity came from the re-developed NOAA 2983 (Catania sunspot group 73), which is now classified as magnetic type beta and produced a single C1.0-class flare with peak time 17:29 on April 8th. Active region NOAA 2985 (beta) has remained stable and inacitve. The X-ray flaring activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the next 24 hours with 50% probability for C-class flaring.

No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the mild influence of another ICME arrival registered around 23:00 UT on April 8th. This could be a flank from the slow CME related to the filament eruption and the C2.7-class flaring around 21:13 UT on April 4th. The solar wind density increased further to about 34 cm-3.The solar wind velocity was mostly below 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly enhanced to 11.5 nT and the Bz component registered a minimum of -8.9 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours with an expected high speed stream (HSS) arrival from two coronal holes potentially mixed with another minor ICME impact from the filament eruption CME, which lifted off the Sun on April 7th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally quiet to unsettled and globally quiet to active after midnight on Aril 8th due to the effects from the ICME arrival. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with chances for minor geomagnetic storms due to the ICME and the influence of the further expected HSS potentially mixed with another ICME.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 037, na základě 22 stanic.

Solární indexy za 08 Apr 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	053
10cm sluneční tok	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	048 - Na základě 17 stanic

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