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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Apr 12 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 Apr 2022	098	005
13 Apr 2022	098	006
14 Apr 2022	099	012

Bulletin

During last 24 hours the solar flaring activity was low with only several B-class and low C-class flares reported, originating mostly from the Catania sunspot groups 73 and 66 (NOAA ARs 2983 and 2982, respectively). These two sunspot groups are presently rotating across the West solar limb. In the coming hours we can expect B-class flares and possibly also isolated C-class flares from the sunspot groups observed presently on the visible side of the solar disc as seen from Earth. The partial halo CME with projected plane-of-the-sky speed of about 500 km/s and angular width of about 180 degrees, was observed in the evening of April 11. The CME was first time observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 filed of view at 21:12 UT and in the STEREO A/COR2 field of view at 20:23 UT. There are no clear on disc signatures of the CME observed on the visible side of the Sun, as seen from Earth or from the STEREO A, indicating that this CME was a back side event and will therefore not arrive to Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was under the 1000 pfu threshold, we expect them to remain on these levels in the coming hours. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours. The in situ observations indicate arrival of the magnetic structure, possibly the glancing blow from the CME observed in the early morning of April 7. However, as the simultaneous increase of the interplanetary magnetic filed magnitude, the solar wind speed, density and temperature started only few hours ago (at about 10:20 UT today), more observations are needed to confirm arrival of the CME. The solar wind speed is presently about 500 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 8 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled. However, the arrival of the mentioned CME might cause the disturbed geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours with the K values up to 4 and possible isolated intervals of K=5.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 012, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 Apr 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	012
10cm sluneční tok	099
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	011 - Na základě 20 stanic

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