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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 May 08 1239 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 May 2022	122	009
09 May 2022	124	008
10 May 2022	122	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. A new active region that has begun to rotate onto the solar disk over the south east limb was the most active, producing a C6.4 flare with a peak time of 03:53 UT. NOAA Active Region AR 3004 produced low level C-flares. The flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels with C-class flares expected and M-class flares remain probable.

An on disk dimming was observed near the central meridian in SDO/AIA 194, visible from 02:21 UT, this event is possibly associated with a filament eruption and any possible associated Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) will be examined when the full coronagraph data become available. No other Earth- directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so with a small chance of a proton event associated to possible flares from NOAA AR 3004. The greater than 2MeV electron flux oscillated around the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to again exceed that threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions reflected an ambient solar wind regime. The solar wind speed (as recorded by ACE) ranged between 270 and 360 km/s. The total magnetic field magnitude fluctuated around 5 nT for the first half of the period, but showed a transient feature arriving from 06:00 UT when the magnitude increased to 9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to mostly continue to reflect an ambient slow solar wind regime for the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp Local K-Bel 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for the next 48 hours, with unsettled intervals possible in response to any further transient features.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 075, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 May 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	118
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	063 - Na základě 21 stanic

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