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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 May 15 1244 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 May 2022	158	014
16 May 2022	156	012
17 May 2022	156	010

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached moderate levels with background C-class flaring and an isolated M2.2-flare (start time 23:58 UTC, end time 00:17 UTC, peak time 00:09 UTC) from the north- east limb last night. Multiple low C-class flares and a C5.7-class flare (peak time 22:07 UTC on May 14th) seem to have originated from the same region at the worth-east limb. The strongest activity on the visible disc was a C4.5-class flare (peak time 22:38 UTC on May 14th) from active region NOAA 3010 (beta), which has significantly grown in size and increased its number of sun spots. The largest active region on the visible solar surface, NOAA 3007 (beta), has remained mostly unchanged and quiet. NOAA ARs 3008 and 3012 have decayed into plage, while NOAA AR 3006 (beta) has decayed further and NOAA AR 3011 (beta) remained stable. A new small and simple active region was numbered in the southern-east hemisphere, NOAA 3013 (beta) and so far has been inactive. Two unnumbered active regions are visible to the east of NOAA 3011, one of which (at the east limb) is expected to produce further C- or M-class flaring over the next 24 hours. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at low to moderate levels with possible further M-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal to low levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered the arrival of a CIR and a high speed stream, which appears to be an early arrival of the expected fast solar wind coming from a large patchy positive-polarity coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian less than three days ago. The solar wind speed has increased to 580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic reached a maximum of 20.7 nT with a minimum Bz of -9.5 nT. The B field orientation remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to be remain elevated over the next 24 hours and throughout the passage of the high speed stream.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally quiet to unsettled and globally reached active levels between midnight and 06 UTC this morning with the arrival of the high speed stream. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours due to the influence of the high speed stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 144, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 May 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	129 - Na základě 32 stanic

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