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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 May 27 1251 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
27 May 2022	124	013
28 May 2022	120	029
29 May 2022	117	017

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours, solar flaring activity has been low, with the flare of the largest X-ray output the C2.8-class flare, peak time May 26 17:52UTC, from NOAA AR 3017, which is about to rotate off the visible disc. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected while M-class flares are possible.

From the observed coronal mass ejections over the past 24 hours, none is currently expected to be earth directed.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It can be expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind conditions were indicative of slow solar wind. However, since about May 27 10:30UTC disturbances can be detected on in-situ data, possibly the expected high-speed stream, as indicated up to now by the change to the phi angle to the negative sector. The magnetic field values increased from 1 and 18nT, while Bz dropped to -16 nT. The solar wind speed decreased to around 300 km/s but has now returned to values of 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched to the negative sector (towards the Sun) around May 27 10:30UTC. Over the next 24 hours, we are expecting those effects from high speed stream to continue and maybe be combined with the effects of the expected glancing blow from the CME occuring on May 25 18:36UTC.

Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K Dourbes=3). Over the next 24 hours, unsettled to active active conditions, with a slight of a minor storm period.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 058, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 26 May 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	080 - Na základě 22 stanic

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